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05/23/10 4:54 PM
Voice of Reasonin These Dark Times
One interesting observation however, in both test cases, inserting two
above average fielders into play at the same time, produced "better"
in terms of Runs Saved verses the Baseline (RSvB) than the sum of the
individual deltas. Case in point, an EX/100 3B with an AV/100 SS saved
27 runs, an
EX/100 SS with an AV/100 3B saved 15 runs for a total of 42 runs.
However, when an EX/100 3B was combined with an EX/100 SS the RSvB was
44.5, a +2.5 run
differential. In other instances, this differential is even more
This is counterintuitive to my belief that as teams add better
defensive players, the impact of any "one" player decreases as that
player is now
required to make fewer outs. If my premise is correct, the whole
"should be" less than the sum of the parts i.e. an aggregate of EX
save fewer runs than the summation of the individual players. What am I
missing? Perhaps, a second order effect such as a pitcher staying
having thrown fewer pitchers. I just don't know.
05/23/10 4:55 PM
05/23/10 4:56 PM
You're using runs as your measurement and, except in the case of home
runs, the offense has to do something right (or the defense do something
least twice in order to score. Runs are a product of serial successes
and more good defenders on the field provide more opportunities for the
chain of events
that creates a run to be broken. Each defender on a team of gold
glovers might actually record fewer outs individually, but the team's
preventing runs should increase geometrically.
05/23/10 4:58 PM
Take an average defense and look at the runs they give up. There will
be some runs which could have been avoided had one above-average play
been made, but
wasn't. There will be other runs which require *two* above-average
plays to avoid. On the other hand, sometimes a good defense will make
above-average plays when only one was needed. The question is which
dominates -- in a situation where a defense makes two plays over and
above an average
defense, will it more often be the case that both plays were needed to
prevent a run, or that the second play turns out to be superfluous?
05/23/10 5:00 PM
05/23/10 5:01 PM
the kind words. The analysis was done more for
the sake of player-to-player comparison and doesn't necessarily
translate well into comparison
with other statistics.
said however, I do use a
percentage of the RSvB numbers in combination with RC600 values in
making personnel decisions. The percentage is
on my perception of the run scoring environment. Most
of the leagues I've played in, average about 650 runs per
team, far short of the 782 runs/team baseline used in the analysis.
OPS, I do use a formula for
converting OPS into RC600 only because I like to take OSPvL and OPSvR
values and generate RC600 L/R split values. The
formula is very rudimentary and my not withstand thorough scrutiny, it's
simply a linear tend line of OPS to RC600:
RC600 = 206.55 * OPS - 72.121
05/23/10 5:03 PM
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